The Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM Bank) on Thursday projected a 3.3% year-on-year increase in India’s total merchandise exports, estimating the figure to touch USD 113.7 billion for the first quarter of the financial year 2025–26.
According to the bank’s official statement, non-oil exports are expected to grow even more robustly, with a projected increase of 10.9%, reaching USD 99.2 billion during the April–June quarter. The forecast comes amid a cautious global environment, with EXIM Bank highlighting risks such as trade policy uncertainties, rising geo-economic fragmentation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The bank attributed the anticipated export growth to a potential revival in domestic manufacturing, the completion of earlier export orders, promising trade negotiations currently underway, and an accommodative policy stance expected to continue within India.
EXIM Bank also stated that the positive momentum in merchandise exports, including non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports, is likely to carry forward into the second quarter of the fiscal year.
To aid its analysis and forecasts, EXIM Bank has developed an in-house export leading index model to monitor and predict quarterly movements in India’s export performance.
About EXIM Bank
The Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) is a specialized financial institution in India that was established in 1982. The bank’s primary function is to finance, facilitate and promote India’s international trade. It is owned by the Government of India and operates as a statutory corporation. Its operations are governed by the Export-Import Bank of India Act, 1981
