New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season, and the latest rainfall data shows the season continuing with a deficit. As of August 2, 2026, cumulative seasonal rainfall was 12% below the Long Period Average (LPA).
The information was provided by Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in the Lok Sabha.
IMD Forecast Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall
IMD issued its First Stage Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on April 13, 2026. It had predicted seasonal rainfall at 92% of the LPA, indicating below-normal rainfall.
The forecast was subsequently updated in the Second Stage forecast, which projected rainfall at 90% of the LPA and anticipated the development of El Niño conditions.
The actual rainfall trend so far remains broadly consistent with the initial seasonal outlook, although significant variations have been observed across months and regions.
Read also: IMD Boosts Northeast India Flood Preparedness with BharatFS and Multi-Hazard Warning System
June Rainfall 35% Below Normal
June recorded a significant rainfall deficit across the country.
- June rainfall: 35% below normal
- Districts with rainfall deficit: Around 70%
The below-normal rainfall during June contributed to early-season concerns over water availability and agricultural conditions in several parts of the country.
July Sees 1% Above-Normal Rainfall, But Regional Gaps Remain
At the all-India level, July rainfall was 1% above the LPA. Strong rainfall activity over Central India helped push the national rainfall figure into the above-normal range.
However, the improvement was not uniform across the country. Around 47% of districts recorded deficient or large-deficient rainfall during the period.
As of August 2, cumulative seasonal rainfall remained 12% below the LPA, broadly in line with IMD’s earlier forecast despite variations during different phases of the monsoon.
El Niño Emerges as Major Climate Driver
As anticipated by IMD, weak El Niño conditions developed over the equatorial Pacific in June 2026 and subsequently strengthened to moderate intensity.
According to the information provided to Parliament, El Niño acted as a major large-scale climate driver affecting monsoon circulation across the country.
The conditions have been associated with:
- Prolonged dry spells
- Localised meteorological drought
- Lower soil moisture
- Stress on rain-fed crops
- Pressure on water reservoir levels
IMD is continuing to monitor El Niño and other climate drivers and is issuing updated advisories to support disaster preparedness, agricultural planning and risk management by Central and State Governments.
Several States Record Significant Rainfall Deficits
Cumulative rainfall data up to August 5, 2026, showed substantial variations across meteorological subdivisions.
Sixteen subdivisions recorded rainfall deficiencies ranging from 20% to 38% below normal. Some of the major deficits included:
- Bihar: -38%
- Arunachal Pradesh: -36%
- Assam & Meghalaya: -35%
- Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam: -35%
- Lakshadweep: -33%
- Punjab: -33%
- Rayalaseema: -32%
- East Uttar Pradesh: -30%
- Jharkhand: -30%
- Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi: -26%
- Kerala & Mahe: -22%
- East Madhya Pradesh: -22%
- East Rajasthan: -22%
- Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura: -21%
- Coastal Karnataka: -21%
- South Interior Karnataka: -20%
Rainfall Deficit Raises Crop and Water Concerns
The government said areas experiencing deficient rainfall could face risks related to crop stress and reduced water storage.
Rain-fed agriculture is particularly sensitive to prolonged rainfall gaps, while lower rainfall can also affect soil moisture and reservoir levels.
IMD continues to issue sub-divisional weather alerts and advisories to help Central and State agencies take timely measures for agricultural planning, water management and disaster preparedness.
IMD Continues Monitoring Southwest Monsoon
With the 2026 monsoon season progressing, IMD is continuously monitoring rainfall patterns as well as large-scale climate factors such as El Niño.
The latest cumulative deficit remains broadly consistent with the department’s seasonal forecast, while significant regional differences highlight the importance of continued monitoring and localised weather advisories.
