New Delhi: The Central Government has informed Parliament that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season, with the possible development of El Niño conditions expected to influence monsoon performance.
In a written reply in the Lok Sabha, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh said that while El Niño generally weakens the Indian summer monsoon, its impact depends on the intensity of the phenomenon. He added that the IMD has been issuing advance forecasts and regular weather updates to help governments and stakeholders prepare for changing weather conditions.
What Is the Impact of El Niño on India’s Monsoon?
According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, El Niño is generally associated with weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall over India.
The government informed Parliament that:
- Since 1950, India has witnessed 16 El Niño years.
- Out of these, seven years recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall.
- The impact of El Niño is usually stronger during the latter half of the monsoon season, particularly in September.
The ministry noted that the strength of an El Niño event largely determines how significantly it affects seasonal rainfall.
Read also: Government Boosts Kharif Preparedness Amid El Niño Fears, Seed Reserves and Crop Support Expanded
IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rainfall for 2026 Southwest Monsoon
The India Meteorological Department issued two long-range forecasts for the 2026 monsoon season.
First Stage Forecast (Issued on April 13, 2026)
- Seasonal rainfall projected at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- Model error margin of ±5%.
Second Stage Forecast
- Seasonal rainfall revised to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- Model error margin improved to ±4%.
The IMD also indicated the likely development of El Niño conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season, enabling governments and other stakeholders to make advance preparations.
IMD Providing Regular Weather and Rainfall Updates
The Centre said the IMD continuously monitors weather conditions and provides forecasts at different intervals.
These include:
- Daily monsoon rainfall updates.
- Monthly updates on El Niño conditions.
- District- and block-level rainfall information.
- Seasonal and monthly forecasts for rainfall and temperature.
- Early warnings for extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and heatwaves.
These updates are shared with Central ministries, State governments, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and timely response.
IMD Supports Agriculture and Water Management
The Ministry informed Parliament that the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is working with agriculture and dam management departments based on experimental seasonal, short-range, and medium-range forecasts for 2026.
The collaboration aims to assess the likely impact of:
- Rainfall patterns.
- Developing El Niño conditions.
- Agricultural activities.
- Water resource management.
Additionally, under the Crop Weather Watch programme of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW), the IMD provides:
- Weekly reports on past rainfall.
- Rainfall forecasts for the following two weeks.
Regular Coordination With Government Ministries
The IMD also participates in regular review meetings organised by:
- Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
- Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).
- Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW).
During these meetings, the department shares updated weather forecasts and scientific inputs to assist decision-making and disaster preparedness.
No District-Wise El Niño Risk Assessment Issued
The Ministry of Earth Sciences clarified that it has not issued any district-wise risk and impact assessment study or separate guidelines to States for tackling the effects of El Niño during 2026.
However, it emphasized that regular weather forecasts, seasonal outlooks, and early warning bulletins continue to be disseminated to support preparedness across the country.
Government Emphasises Early Warning and Preparedness
The Centre said that timely weather forecasts and climate advisories remain the primary tools for helping governments and stakeholders prepare for potential impacts of below-normal rainfall and extreme weather events linked to El Niño.
By issuing advance forecasts and continuous updates, the IMD aims to assist authorities in planning for agriculture, water resources, disaster management, and other critical sectors.
Read also: Strong El Niño May Intensify Heatwaves and Rainfall Extremes, WMO Alerts
