The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is expected to strengthen rapidly during the July-September period, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and erratic rainfall across several regions of the world, including the Indian subcontinent.
The latest assessment comes at a time when India is already experiencing the effects of the climate phenomenon. June ended with a rainfall deficit of nearly 40%, disrupting the early phase of the southwest monsoon and slowing the sowing of major kharif crops across several states.
Monsoon Deficit Begins to Affect Agriculture
The delayed and uneven rainfall has had an immediate impact on agricultural activity. Farmers have been unable to begin sowing in many rain-fed regions, leading to a significant decline in the area brought under cultivation compared to the same period last year.
According to TOI, the total kharif acreage stood at around 182 lakh hectares as of June 25, compared with 236 lakh hectares during the corresponding period last year, reflecting a decline of nearly 23%.
Among the major crops, paddy, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals such as maize and millets, and cotton have all recorded lower sowing coverage. Oilseeds have witnessed the steepest fall, with acreage dropping by more than half compared to last year.
WMO Expects Stronger El Niño in Coming Months
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. In India, it is often associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall and hotter summer conditions.
The phenomenon generally develops every two to seven years and can persist for nine to twelve months.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño conditions have already developed and are expected to intensify into a strong event over the coming months. She noted that this would increase the risk of drought, episodes of heavy rainfall, and heatwaves over land and oceans in several parts of the world.
Rainfall Recovery Still Possible, but Distribution Will Be Key
Meteorologists believe the overall rainfall deficit may narrow as the southwest monsoon advances across the country during July, August and September. However, experts caution that the success of the agricultural season will depend not only on the total amount of rainfall but also on how evenly it is distributed across the country’s rain-fed farming regions.
The monsoon core zone, where agriculture relies heavily on seasonal rainfall, will remain crucial for determining crop prospects. Adequate and well-distributed rainfall in these areas will play a decisive role in improving sowing activity and safeguarding agricultural output during the current kharif season.
