New Delhi: India is on track to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025, according to Dr. Arvind Virmani, Member of NITI Aayog. His statement comes days after NITI Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said that India has already surpassed Japan in terms of GDP size.
Dr. Virmani, speaking to PTI, clarified that while India is “in the process” of overtaking Japan, official confirmation can only be made once complete data for the full year becomes available. “We need data for all 12 months’ GDP to assert that. Until then, it remains a forecast,” he said.
Subrahmanyam, citing IMF data, had earlier stated, “We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a USD 4 trillion economy.” He added that only the US, China, and Germany are ahead of India and projected that India could become the third-largest economy within the next 2.5 to 3 years if current growth trends continue.
Dr. Virmani acknowledged Subrahmanyam’s comments but noted the complexity of such assertions. “Perhaps there was some word which was missed or something,” he said, emphasizing that annual GDP in current US dollar prices is the standard metric for such rankings.
IMF Projections Back India’s Rise
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April, projected that India’s nominal GDP in 2025 would reach USD 4.187 trillion, slightly ahead of Japan’s projected USD 4.186 trillion. This would place India firmly in the fourth position globally.
The report also highlighted that India’s per capita income is projected to more than double from USD 1,438 in 2013-14 to USD 2,880 in 2025 – a significant indicator of economic progress.
Growth Outlook and Global Context
Despite global challenges, the Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.2% in 2025-26, slightly down from the earlier forecast of 6.5%. The IMF attributes this to escalating trade tensions and global uncertainty but notes that India’s growth remains relatively stable, supported by rural consumption and domestic demand.
In contrast, the global economy is expected to grow at 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, underscoring India’s standout performance among major economies.
